And it turns out that in September (and the start date of the global financial crisis is considered to be September 16) Belarusian industry demonstrated a decline in production compared with the previous month. And this, according to experts 'Tomorrow your country' means that Belarus 'entered' in crisis almost simultaneously with the rest of the world. True, unlike other countries that 'Beat' at this time in the stock markets, we, for lack thereof, immediately switched to an economic crisis. Since September last year was not a single month, which would in Belarus there was a reduction of the index industrial production in comparison with the previous month. The largest decline was recorded in November compared with October – minus 13.8%. In December, compared with August 2008 the decline in production was more than 20%. Is not Crisis? However, the government still talk about stability, under the cover of aggregated indicators in relation to the previous year, which have been formed taking into account the recovery that has been 'amassed' at the beginning of 2008.
Since the beginning of the current , the statistical situation has changed dramatically – for the past three consecutive months, production is decreasing, not only compared to the previous month but compared to the same period last year. Moreover, if the original Belstat still showed a slight increase in January compared with January 2008 (plus 1.2%), then later, a survey of industrial enterprises, counted indicators registered a decline (minus 2.9%). For the first quarter 2009 decline in industrial production over the first quarter of 2008 amounted to 4,5%. To assess what is happening, we note that the first quarter of 2008 ended with respect to the same period of 2007 growth in 15,8%. By this must be added that the decline in external trade (relative to the previous month), there is – for two consecutive quarters – from October 2008. The declining trend in enterprise profits and an increase in net loss also marked since October 2008 years and continues to grow. (And these numbers are usually also taken into account in ascertaining the recession in the country).
Well, finally, has for the first three months of this year marked slowdown in gdp growth in annual calculus. January 2009 / in January 2008 – 2,6%, yanvar-fevral2009/2008 – 1,2%, the 1 st quarter of 2009/2008 – 1,1%. Any sensible government has, at least, in December, stated to a recession in the economy, and we have the president at a recent meeting and was unable to consider trend – it is the worse or towards improvement, and in general it was found that the outcome is still too early to sum up, we will wait six months. Apparently, starting in September, we expect not just the results, and positive outcomes.
